The end of April represents the right moment to start asking how 2016 will perform as far as textile-fashion industry is concerned. Estimates of Sistema Moda Italia, carried out together with Carlo Cattaneo University – Liuc of Castellanza, confirm a favourable performance for the sector, with growth expectations for 2016 around 2.2%.
Smi-Liuc’s estimates start from outlooks developed for 2016 by IMF and ECB, with a world GDP growth accounting for 3.2%, an average euro-dollar exchange rate accounting for about 1.1, and energy’s prices remaining stable until June 2016. On this basis, the turnover of Italian textile-fashion industry within the first half of 2016 should record an increase of 2.2%, exports should mark +2.9% and imports + 5%. The overall turnover’s increase is given by +1% concerning textile industry and +2.9% concerning apparel-fashion one. The number of companies and operators is stationary, showing a new structural balance within the sector, after the significant restructuring processes due to the crises registered in 2005 and 2009.
As to exports, expectations for 2016 show a ‘moderate growth’ compared to 29.1 billion of 2015 (a total +2,1% on 2014; +1.9 for textile industry). Sistema Moda Italia invites to consider 2015 export results as positive, since they were gained despite several factors hampering growth: from the slowdown of emerging countries to the increase of Russian downturn, to the reshaping of competitive advantage linked to the weak euro after the devaluation made by other countries.
Biella, 4 May 2016